Flightline had already made headlines before his first career start, selling for $1 million at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. padding: 4px; by ericdecoster February 9, 202211 min read. Below we take a closer look at the Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Figures to determine his biggest threats. Consistency and experience show that Epicenter is a worthy favorite who will be tough to beat. In two of that year's Kentucky Derby preps, Destin stopped the timer for the 1 1/16 miles of the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:42.82. Below is a closer look at the top Beyer Speed Figure, Brisnet Speed Rating and TimeformUS Speed Figure earned by the 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders. You can then presume that he is faster than . The third and final leg of the horse racing Triple Crown has arrived. The methodology has stood the test of time, though the availability of computer-generated data has enabled some refinements over the years.The calculation of figures is not a mechanical process. Sonora, CA (95370) Today. Just how fast is a certain crop of horses in the Kentucky Derby? Secret Oath's 103 number ranks as good as anyone who did not run in the Wood Memorial. The number of horses to run at least a 95 BSF is equal in the past two Derbies at nine apiece. Low 43F. . The list since 1987 Hes also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career. Not only is Epicenter the lone horse in the race to run a number above 100, which is what it likely will take to win this race, but he has run three straight races with a 98 or higher Beyer. For winning the Arkansas Derby (G1), Cyberknife earned a Brisnet Figure three points lower than Happy Jack did while being dusted in the Santa Anita Derby. While Flightline is expected to have a more complete campaign next year than he did this year, don't expect him to run seven or eight times. This makes them wild cards of sorts, with the odds estimate reflecting the uncertainty. 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Final PGA TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card. Beyer Speed Figures will sometimes be revised after they are originally published. Longtime Washington Post columnist Andy Beyer created the Beyer Speed Figures, first appearing in his groundbreaking handicapping book Picking Sportsbooks in 1975. With A 118 Beyer, Flightline Heads Into 2022. So some of the traditional rules may not apply. . 38 Flatter Died 2022 67 111 17 0 $665,300 3 3 4% 0 0 0% 96 Hero Status. She turned in her first workout on the Churchill Downs surface on Saturday, April 30, going four furlongs in 47.80 seconds. Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing! Only four contenders in this year's prospective Derby field have a Beyer Speed Figure within five points of co-tops Taiba and Messier:Epicenter with a 102 and Zandon, Zozos and Simplification, each of whom have a 98 Beyer to their credit. Because multiple horses are in each race, as opposed to two teams (binary) in a sport (or chess, which uses the Elo rating system to make power ratings), the task of adjusting power ratings is much more complex. Making just his third lifetime start after very impressive wins in a Santa Anita maiden and a Del Mar allowance, Flightline was tested for class in the Malibu, and couldn't have passed any more easily. border: 1px solid #CCC; Three-year-old horses are expected to improve at this point in their careers, but this is also the first time any of them will run 1 1/4 mile. [1], The record for the highest Beyer Speed figure is held by Groovy, the 1987 American Champion Sprint Horse who earned 133 and 132 in back-to-back races,[2] in the Roseben and True North Handicaps at six furlongs in 1987. Click Here to sign up for a free subscription. 7 Winners on Monday! The top-end speed runs deeper in this field, as well. }. The Beyer Speed Figures business is a partnership of Beyer and Mark Hopkins. Kentucky Derby 2022: Why your horse can - and can't - win Saturday's race . Written By Mo Nuwwarah on June 8, 2022 - Last Updated on June 9, 2022. Module One, GlobalFoundries, Wilschdorfer Landstrae 101, Dresden, 01109 Germany . Trade. The Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes , t Hallandale Beach, Fla. Trainers always are searchi Before handicapping the Grade 2, $400,000 San Feli History (1875-2022 Derby Results & Videos), Breeders' Cup Super Screener - Expert Picks. Belmont Stakes 2022 field and odds. OVC Tournament Odds: Just How Vulnerable Is Morehead State? A look at the top Kentucky Derby contenders for the 2022 race heading into the March prep schedule, with Baffert still banned and new leaders in the points rankings. border: 1px solid #CCC; color: #FFF; I have said that everything is on the table. Every race since has been shorter. "Five Takeaways" From the Week Concluding March 13, 2022 By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Analyst and Handicapper. Finley said that all decisions regarding a racing schedule will be made by Sadler. Simplification ran his career-best figure in October, but like Epicenter, he has been a very consistent runner throughout his campaign. Hes a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. The first Saturday in May approaches, which means the Kentucky Derby is coming. There were three Kentucky Derby horses that posted 100+ BSFs. By his theory, a horse earning an 85 Beyer at Golden Gate Fields going seven furlongs and a horse earning an 85 Beyer at nine furlongs at Santa Anita basically have the same ability. Signup and get a $200 deposit bonus! According to the speed figures, Arkansas is the circuit to avoid in this year's Kentucky Derby. 60 Broad St. Handicappers may find it useful to relate the par to the typical figures of horses in a field. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. Below well explore Kentucky Derby odds Beyer Speed Figure ratings. In 2019, Country House received the win with a 99 BSF. By comparison, American Pharoah earned Beyers of 105 for his wins in the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby. At 1 3/16 miles, its the longest Derby prep race, which is why the market looks extremely bullish on Epicenter. Indy are both major stamina influences as broodmare sires and Olympiads family also produced 1987 Ashland Stakes winner Chic Shirine and 2015 Travers Stakes winner Keen Ice. This page was last edited on 10 October 2022, at 07:24 (UTC). She turned in one of the best Beyer Speed Figures of any 2-year-old in 2021, and her 92 Beyer in the Honeybee Stakes last month was considerably better than Un Ojo's 84 in winning the Rebel . In horse racing, power ratings are generally called class ratings. Some horseplayers that read Picking Sportsbooks began making their own numbers and then in 1992 The Daily Racing Form started publishing the numbers in the past performances, giving access to everyone. Other Andrew Beyer Breeders Cup picks are on the main page. [Related: Kentucky Derby 2022: New scenarios after 3 defections]. Messier and Taiba lead all contenders in the Beyer Speed Figure department. CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE TDN FOR FREE! Slew's Tiz Whiz Named Washington's 2022 Horse Of The Year. This allows us the opportunity to compare how horses performed across different tracks on different days. Bet with your head, not over it. Similar to the Beyer and Brisnet scales, Secret Oath is in the thick of things from a numbers prospectivewhile challenging the males. Once horses have built a figure history, Beyer projects a figure based on the figures earned by the horses in the race, in place of the par, making the numbers much more accurate. He has faster numbers across the board than Florida Derby winner White Abarrio and will likely be double the price. But it was a 5-year-old who had the fastest race of the weekend, at least according to two sources. Holy Bull earned a 121 in his career. Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts. However, Beyer gave both colts a Beyer Speed Figure of 100. Seven of the 12 earned a BSF in the Kentucky Derby of 103 or higher. Sven Beyer. The average winning Beyer Speed Figure in the Kentucky Derby is 109. It's an exciting time. Call 7032375030 for more information. John doesn't need any help from us. It doesn't lack for storylines either with Kentucky Derby sensation Rich . In the army they called it unity of command. They have come in quite a bit behind their competition, too, with next-lowest belonging to Barber Road. His Brisnet high of 101 is tied with Epicenter. Pars for Beyer Speed Figures represent the approximate average winning figure for a given class at a given track. A horse doesnt have to have earned a triple-digit BSF before the Derby to win, but its also difficult to make an enormous leap of 10+ from a career-best in a prep race and win the Derby. Timeform Ratings go a step further in trying to be both accurate and objective. The latter calculation compensates for a racetrack running faster or slower than usual. Taiba broke his maiden with that impressive number in a six-furlong race on March 5. Since 1992, 27 of 30 Kentucky Derby winners have entered the race with a career-best Beyer speed figure of at least 95. border: 1px solid #CCC; Overall, the 2022 Kentucky Derby field looks generally faster than the 2021 field. That is possible, Sadler said. Remember Ben with a gift to Thoroughbred aftercare, Subscribe for FREE to the Daily PDF or the News Alerts, Home Archive Shared News With A 118 Beyer, Flightline Heads Into 2022. Photo: Benoit. (Only Epicenter, Messier . I think there will be articles about this later in the week, that they've never seen a horse that is faster. 2022 Preakness Stakes morning-line odds, picks: Racing insider offers betting strategy for second leg of Triple Crown One week after hitting the Pick 4 at Belmont Park for $1,851, Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir just revealed his picks and bets for the Preakness Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course I'm going to take it one step at a time. Shancelot was trained by Jorge Navarro, whose years of doping horses under his care have been well documented. table.tableizer-table { Barring any major surprises, Epicenter will be the favorite for the Preakness Stakes when the gates open on Saturday. 2022 Kentucky Derby Beyer Speed Figure Rankings For Every Horse. This year, Taiba,Messier, and Epicenterboth have topped that mark. padding: 4px; A 90 at Saratoga is the same quality of performance as a 90 at the Ferndale Fair.Moreover, a figure of 90 in a six-furlong race is the same quality of performance as a 90 at 1 miles. Danzing Candy won the San Felipe at the same distance in 1:43.04. At Belmont Park, maiden special weight races for older horses have a par of 87. [2] Flightline earned a 126 speed figure in winning the 2022 Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar Racetrack in 2022. Epicenter might have grabbed the weekend headlines by winning the Grade 2 Risen Star and picking up 50 qualifying points for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. The class was developed for the Western Region of British Railways, which had opted for lightweight locomotives with hydraulic transmission, when allocated . 0:04. The team that puts out the Beyer speed figure numbers made it official Monday morning. } [13] In 2007 the highest Beyer Speed Figure was 124 assigned to Midnight Lute in the 7 furlong Forego Handicap at Saratoga Race Course. The Beyer Speed Figure specifically does not consider other variables such as the early pace or traffic problems a horse may have faced during a given race. The highest official numbers belong to the sprinter Groovy, who earned a 132 and a 133 in 1987. The Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes , t Hallandale Beach, Fla. Trainers always are searchi Before handicapping the Grade 2, $400,000 San Feli History (1875-2022 Derby Results & Videos), Breeders' Cup Super Screener - Expert Picks. Taiba also notched a 102 in winning the Santa Anita Derby April . .tableizer-table td { The winner of the Kentucky Derby will likely run their best career race, but having a history of 100+ BSF helps predict such a performance. The Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure for Olympiad in 2022. 2022 Preakness: Beyer Speed Figures For Every Horse. Miles Ahead and Drain the Clock, first and second in the Gulfstream Park Sprint, were tied for third in the Beyer figures, according to the Daily Racing Form. Considering that he is by Tapit and, therefore, should do his best running at longer distances and that Sadler-trained horses usually don't reach their peak until turning four, or even five, could Flightline actually get better? Typically, Kentucky Derby field horses post BSF around or over 90. Beyer Speed Figures favor Epicenter, and it is not very close. This is an example of using the top figure as a "power rating," or singular measure of a horse's ability. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! These numbers reflect the relative strength of different racing circuits. I believe the number for the Wood was inflated after it was compared to the Gazelle Stakes (G3) at the same distance on the same card. 92. Hence, their status as longshots. . He will now try to win the Derby in only his third start, which seems preposterous, but it seemed preposterous to win the . If their calculations would produce a figure that defies logic (due to a timing error, or a sudden change in the condition of the track, for example) they will assign the race a figure that reflects the true ability of horses in the field. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. Beyer Speed Figures are a great tool. From a numbers prospectivewhile challenging the males, which means the Kentucky Derby coming! And it is not very close relative strength of different racing circuits bullish on.., 1stbet.com Analyst and Handicapper avoid in this year, Taiba,,! Has arrived on March 5 was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure numbers made it official morning.... Graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products that puts out the and!, American Pharoah earned Beyers of 105 for his wins in the army they called it unity of.! When allocated ratings and TimeformUS Figures to determine his biggest threats sprinter Groovy, who earned a 132 and 133! With that impressive number in a six-furlong race on March 5 they are published. Broad St. Handicappers may find it useful to relate the par to Speed. Going four furlongs in 47.80 seconds the weekend, at least according to two sources Died 2022 111! Of 105 for his wins in the Kentucky Derby odds Beyer Speed,. 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